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  • Andrei RadulescuDatele sectoriale din luna iulie, în principal producţia industrială, indică o a treia scădere trimestrială la finele lunii septembrie, ceea ce înseamnă că economia nu va ieşi din recesiune tehnică, estimează Andrei Rădulescu, senior economist la Banca Transilvania.

    „….Trimestrul al treilea a început foarte rău. Deci, trimestrul trei are mare probabilitate să fie în continuare pe minus faţă de trimestrul anterior, dar avem doar datele pe iulie”, a spus Rădulescu, citat de Mediafax.

    România a reintrat în recesiune tehnică, având două trimestre consecutive de contracţie a PIB, cu cea mai mare scădere economică din UE 28 în al doilea trimestru al anului, de -1%, potrivit datelor publicate de Eurostat, care au relevat modificarea evoluţiei pentru primul trimestru, de la +0,2% la -0,2%.

    Economistul băncii a arătat că, faţă de luna iunie, industria a decelerat la 5,7% an la an în iulie, comerţul cu amănuntul a decelerat la 6,3%, iar exporturile au urcat cu 12,7% lună la lună şi cu 6,6% an/an, la 4,8 miliarde euro.

    „Nu ştiu în ce măsură vor fi relansate investiţiile publlice, mai ales că intrăm într-o perioadă electorală. Asta ar mai putea schimba puţin perspectiva, dar estimarea actuală este că vom rămâne în recesiune tehnică”, a spus Rădulescu.

    El a explicat că în ultimii şapte ani au fost câteva sectoare în care s-a mai investit, dar per global s-a dezinvestit pe toată această perioadă.

    Pe de altă parte, din punct de vedere al indicatorilor macroeconomic, economia nu a arătat niciodată mai bine decât acum după 1990.

    „Avem stabilitatea preţurilor, deficite comercial şi de cont curent mici, dobânzi la minime istorice”, a continuat economistul Băncii Transilvania.

    Rădulescu a explicat că exportul a atins record după record, mai ales pentru că populaţia din Vest a preferat, din cauza incertitudinilor, să cumpere produse mai ieftine din Est.

    „Exporturile româneşti au beneficiat de efectul de substituţie din Vest, dar lipsit de snobismul de marcă”, a arătat economistul băncii.

    Potrivit lui Rădulescu, este foarte probabil ca BNR să reducă din nou dobânda de politică monetară, plasată acum la 3,25% pe an, în septembrie şi noiembrie.

    „Probabilitatea unei dobânzi de 2,75% pe an până la finele anului este foarte mare”, a consideră analistul.

    Analiştii Băncii Transilvania au o prognoză de creştere economică de 2,5% pentru acest an, în scădere de la 3,8% înainte de ultimele date privind PIB. Ei văd însă premise de accelerare graduală a PIB pe termen mediu, la 3,6% în 2015 şi 4,2% în 2016.

    Rădulescu anticipează totodată o decelerarare a exporturilor şi accelerarea importurilor, începând cu anul viitor.

    Acest articol este proprietatea Pagina de Bănci și este protejat de legea drepturilor de autor. Orice preluare a conținutului se poate face doar în limita a 500 de semne, cu citarea sursei și cu link către pagina acestui articol.

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